Next Named Storm?

[Sean Benneyworth]

I'm going to stick my neck out and call this cluster the next named storm of 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season:

[James_S]

I think you could be right Sean, this is the latest IR image:

Colin could be on his way.

[Sean Benneyworth]

It's just been given a probability of formation by the National Hurricane Centre - currently stands at 20% for formation over the next 48 hours. I think we'll see a steady increase as it travels west ish - here's the text:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Glyn Jones]

Ooh, that's cheeky Sean. Was it the cluster at 24W in your original post that you were referring to? Because this mornings GTWO highlights the stuff that was at 12W in your image grab, see animation:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-ir4.html

Either way, trade winds too strong, not good. I do get the feeling that there's a train of >Cat3 monsters on the way, being as it's taking so long to get going and the SST's are up:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web/dynamic/ncoda_1440x721_global_sst.gif 

[Sean Benneyworth]

My bad! Well spotted, Glyn! Have to confess I haven't seen those animation pages before - bookmarked! Admittedly it's not the ideal set-up, but I'm gonna stick by it - just something in my gut!! GFS does seem to want to set-up some kind of weak circulation in the medium-term - just have a feeling that if it can hold out until towards the Gulf area waters where shear is weaker while still good SSTs it still stands a reasonable chance. Just got to not be torn apart before then.

I think perhaps things should start to pick up from mid-Augustish and I'm inclined to agree with you that we could see a fair share of major hurricanes...what do you think?

[Sean Benneyworth]

Haven't had a proper look at the loops etc. as I'm on the phone but from what I can see the two clusters in the original image have been given a 60% chance of formation within 48 hours (under a single system). If it can form soon I think we could have a reasonably powerful hurricane - fairly typical of Cape Verde types. Time will tell I guess!

[Glyn Jones]

GFS holds a disturbance all the way round the bottom of the mid-Atl high into the NE Carribean Sea. Try this for experimental cyclone potential from various models: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Should we run up a links page for the forthcoming season? Must admit once one of these monsters rocks up my thrice-daily weather site checking tally practically doubles!

[Sean Benneyworth]

That's an excellent link Glyn! Makes things a lot less fiddly! Links page sounds like a decent idea. Tropical cyclone potential within 48 hours now up to 80% on this system and is organising - looks like this one may likely work out. Will start prepping the OT pages for any possible activation.

I also increase my internet usage threefold when a good tropical cyclone gets going!

[Rich Byett]

Looks like this disturbance could become the first major system of the season, with potential to affect a large number of countries and territories if it does maintain a track towards and through the northeastern Caribbean.

[James_S]

Like Glyn & Sean, actually like everybody on here probably, I love tracking a good Tropical Storm and I think this one could be an explosive start to August. NHC mentioning that advisories may be issued this afternoon (tonight for us).

[Disco Stoo]

Yeah i've been lurking in the dark corner of this thread, afraid to show my hand, but from the start it looked a good choice of depression for a storm. I still think you'll be proved right very soon.

[Sean Benneyworth]

I agree Rich - the track potentially takes this thing right along some of the northern territories - could be looking at a potential activation I think. I also agree that this could be a major hurricane, though this morning there appears to be slightly more inconsistancy in the models - GFS seems to have weakened the surface circulation, while others steer it more to the NE and and weaken similarly, while others keep it on the track we've mentioned and show a reasonably powerful system.

Hey Stuart! Welcome - feel free to show the hand! Time will tell I guess - but cyclogenesis does look favourable at the moment!

[James_S]

Interesting area behind Invest 91 that seems to be developing. Possible chance of the two areas combining?

I think Invest 91 is going to struggle to get beyond a Tropical Storm, at the moment anyway.

Update: NHC's 8am update remains at 90% chance of formation in next 48 hours.

[Glyn Jones]

WTNT44 KNHC 021452
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

DATA FROM AN 1148 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT AFTER THAT TIME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AROUND 65W.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO
AROUND 30 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK
IN INTENSITY AROUND THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...IT COULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION WITH SUCH A FAST FORWARD SPEED...AND COULD OPEN BACK UP
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.

[Sean Benneyworth]

Well, we have a tropical depression as referenced to the discussion posted by Glyn above. SkyWarn UK OT advisories are now also in effect as regards this depression.

Models definitely more in agreement as regards the effect of the trough on the strength of storm, although CMC still holds out on quite a defined circulation. I think we'll at least see a strong Tropical Storm, and I personally wouldn't be surprised if we had a brief spell as a Cat 1 hurricane at somepoint, though this remains to be seen. I don't suppose anyone has any links to a bulk shear chart for the actual Atlantic - one I'm using currently is sufficient but doesn't go out all that far.

I think we'll get to say hi to Colin fairly soon!